2012 Euro Cup semifinals: Italy vs. Germany, Las Vegas odds and choose

The 2012 Euro Cup is down to the final four teams, and when Italy and Germany square off Thursday afternoon they'll be playing to take care of the winner with the Spain vs. Portugal game that can take place later today.
Recent history between both of these teams favors Italy, but Germany doesn't worry about the past, they may be focused on the game taking place.
The German squad haven't beaten Italy in a very competitive match.
"We can't turnaround for the time, ignore regarding it, earlier times doesn't play a role in your planning," said German Coach Joachim Loew. "Another stat is the fact that Germany hasn't won against Italy inside a major tournament, but what exactly?"
Las Vegas odds makers must feel it's time for Germany to win as they are the favourite at -135. The Over/Under number is 2.5.
This game will probably be a tricky, hard fought match. My buddies are telling me that I am going the wrong method about here this match, but here it is anyways!
Pick - Italy

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